Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Mielke Has a Snowball's Chance

Time Magazine – Republican Surprise: 10 More Scott Browns « Sean Duffy for Congress
In a normal year, Wisconsin Democrat David Obey, the powerful head of the House appropriations committee, would not have to worry. But normal years do not bring challengers like Sean Duffy, a successful district attorney who also happens to be a former star of MTV’s The Real World (the Boston season), a champion lumberjack competitor and an ESPN commentator. Obama won Wisconsin’s 7th District in 2008 by a decent margin, but Bush managed to win 49% of the vote in the largely Democratic district in 2004. Obey does not seem ruffled by Duffy’s harping on his role in the stimulus or statements that Obey is helping to create a “greater crisis” in terms of deficit spending. In fact, the Congressman’s campaign website isn’t even up and running yet. With plenty of media attention, strong fundraising and a very fresh face — he wasn’t even born when Obey first took office, in 1970 — Duffy will likely win the Republican primary, barring a surprise showing by the self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Dan Mielke. Of course, that would mean facing the third longest-serving member of the House in the general election, a man whose smallest margin of victory in 18 elections was seven points.
I think it is safe to say that Daniel Mielke has no chance at winning the primary.  I mean, how many people are going to be willing to send a farmer up against Obey - especially one who has already lost once against him? 

In 2008 I was a Republican volunteer manning my county's headquarters.  During that election cycle Mielke's campaign appeared from the outside to be in a state of disarray.  All the materials, in my opinion, looked like they were made at home on a cheap inkjet printer.

Mielke's message didn't resonate with voters either - he failed to carry a single county during the 2008 election against Obey.  Not one single county was willing to say "Yes, I want Dan Mielke to represent me in Congress".  Now let's fast forward to today's race.

Mielke and Duffy are squaring off in a primary - something that Mielke did not experience in 2008, at least not from my perspective.  Now Mielke has to face a successful attorney in a primary, and one who is extremely well funded.  Duffy is getting national recognition, not to mention being the first House challenger to be endorsed by Sarah Palin.

What has Mielke been up to?  Not much... a Google news search for Daniel Mielke's name does not turn up anything that is very interesting, most of his mentions are alongside of Sean Duffy's mentions.  Conclusion:  Duffy is making news while Mielke is trying to be in the news.

A lot of people are saying that this is going to be an interesting primary but I don't see it happening.  I'm going to say that Mielke has as much of a chance as winning this primary as Congressman Ron Paul had of winning the 2008 Presidential primary.

To the anonymous commenter from the other day... please, wake up and take a look at reality.

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